Let me get this straight. Our country is heading into a recession, and nobody knows what to do about it except dole out money to people to put the country even more in debt.
The economy is like an uncaged wild beast that when aroused for one reason or another cannot be forced back into its confines.
But we shouldn't be helpless, because we created both the beast and the cage. Despite our lip service to a free-market economy, we can have control over how it might behave in the future and can try to manage the cycles of supply and demand.
You wouldn't know it today, however. In the past several years, the economy appears to have been run by an imbecile, while the experts scratch their heads about housing, credit and debt.
Meanwhile, real people are banging their heads about jobs, energy and food bills, and the free-fall of their retirement accounts.
My 401k has plummeted by 10 percent since Oct. 1, and I know I'm not alone. I just hope there's something left when I need it.
The stock markets have taken a nosedive the last few months and especially the past week, a fact that no longer affects just corporations and the rich. A lot of people have investments nowadays _ and they're hurting.
Consumer confidence has sunk to the lowest level in at least six years, which usually means that people aren't going to buy as much. So, naturally, consumer spending, which drives much of our economy, has been slipping in recent months.
Economists tend to agree that recessions occur about every six years, and last from eight to 16 months. OK, so every half-dozen years the beast just happens to get out of the cage, and we know it's going to escape but can't do anything about it _ because we're market- driven, not human-driven.
We wonder why we're paying so much for gasoline and other fossil fuels, point our fingers at OPEC and watch as the oil companies rake in billions in profits every quarter.
We know that people talking about peak oil are right _ and have been right for three decades _ but we've done little to develop alternative, renewable energy sources. Again, because we're market-driven and refuse to tame the beast.
We should realize that debts and deficits are not healthy and, if allowed to get out of control, will result in shaky personal finances and economies. The U.S. has a projected $250 billion deficit and studies show that Americans' personal debt also has been rising in recent months.
Now, I'm no expert, but common sense tells me that if we're going to spend $500 billion on wars while also creating a huge deficit, consistently have a big trade deficit and then dole out tax cuts, we are asking for trouble.
When the economy gets shaky, however, we really shouldn't be surprised. Try buying something not made in China. Learn that the nation's debt is being financed by foreign interests. Look at the fact that family incomes have been steady since 2001 while prices for necessities have jumped.
So, as the Fed, practically in a panic about avoiding one in financial markets, tries slashing interest rates, Bush and Congress talk about sending a check to low- and middle-income families. They figure people will run to the mall, like they were told to do by the president after 9/11, and spend their hundreds of dollars on more stuff made in China.
Yeah, that's doing our economy a lot of good.
Or they just pay some of their credit-card debt that resulted from trying to pay for heat, gasoline and other stuff made in China.
Bush has not shown the ability or the willingness to recognize the seriousness of the problem. Why should he? His record in the private sector was a failure. Nothing will get better if we have to rely on him calling the shots. With the end of his reign within sight, however, maybe the chance for change will help carry us through.
If we take care of our real problems, the crisis in housing and mortgages should run its course, but any bailouts should go to the people, not the banks and lenders.
It's clear we need to stop importing so much needless junk from China. We need to get serious and make the beast pursue renewable energy. And we need to get out of Iraq before wasting any more billions of dollars.
If there's a recession, we have nobody to blame but ourselves.
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Cary Brunswick is managing editor of The Daily Star. He may be reached at (607) 432-1000, ext. 217, or cary@thedailstar.com.
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