It's still summer, at least for another week. But the days are getting shorter, the nights are getting colder, and snow, sometime in the next few months, is a certainty.
How much snow is anyone's guess, though it isn't stopping predictions dependent on, among other things, almanacs, farmers and woolly bear larvae.
The Farmers' Almanac, first published in 1818, is forecasting a "numbingly cold" winter for the Northeast. The Old Farmer's Almanac, which began publishing 26 years before its competitor, is also calling for a snowy, cold winter for most of the country.
Although its official 2008-09 winter forecast won't be released until next month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center is calling for a mild winter.
Scott Pickwick of Pickwick's Motorsports in Milford said he is hoping the almanacs are right.
The last four winters have not been kind to snowmobilers, Pickwick said, "We're due."
Forecasting the severity of winter months using the scientific formulas of the Climate Prediction Center isn't much better than trusting the almanacs, said Jerome Blechman, professor of meteorology at the State University College at Oneonta.
"The predictability of the entire winter for the next five months is very hard to distinguish from chance given the methods that we have," said Blechman, chairman of SUCO's Department of Earth Sciences.
The success rate of the Climate Prediction Center is typically between 55 to 65 percent, Blechman said.
The almanacs get it right about half the time, he said.
"They basically don't do any better than chance," Blechman said. "You can flip a coin and do as well as they do."
But Blechman said there may be another source for winter predictions: farmers.
"Farmers have a wonderful sense of the atmosphere. They just do it intuitively," Blechman said.
Dairy farmers prefer cold winters with enough snow to insulate the ground, which will protect alfalfa, said Mariane Kiraly, a resource educator for Delaware County Cornell Cooperative Extension.
Cold, consistent temperatures are also better for the health of dairy herds, which in the wintertime are susceptible to respiratory illnesses during fluctuations in weather, she said.
"Cold is great for dairy animals," Kiraly said. "Cold rain in the winter is not good. (Cattle) viruses spread just like the flu."
She also said farmers are more in tune with nature's rhythms.
"Farmers actually watch things a little more closely because they are in nature all the time," Kiraly said.
There seems to be an abundance of apples, berries and nuts this year, and that could signify a harsh winter ahead, Kiraly said, citing a maxim believed by some farmers.
"According to our apple crop, it's going to be a hard winter," said Bovina dairy farmer Ed Weber.
Apples on the trees in his orchard seem more abundant this year, he said. The leaves on his Catskill Mountain dairy farm are also beginning to change already.
But one predictor of the harshness of winter has not yet made a widespread appearance.
Woolly bears are the larval form of the Isabella tiger moth, which typically has black stripes at the end and a lighter, middle band. The wider the middle band, the harsher the winter will be, according to folklore.
"They'll be coming out soon," Weber said.
No scientific evidence exists to support the belief that woolly bears, bushy tails on squirrels or any other folklore-inspired winter forecast method can somehow predict the winter.
But Blechman said it is possible that the natural world and its animal inhabitants can pick up on signals in the atmosphere that humans miss.
"A true scientist doesn't rule it out," Blechman said.
Area snowmobilers are rooting for the bumper apple crop, the nuts and berries that will help feed animals throughout a cold winter, Pickwick said.
"Mother Nature will take care of its animals," he said.
But snowmobilers, ice anglers, skiers and other outdoor, winter sports enthusiasts may be in for a mild winter, according to the current seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
The forecast for December, January and February from the Center indicates a higher probability of above-normal temperatures. The long-range forecast indicates there is an equal chance for above-normal or below-normal precipitation during those three months.
"There's no way at all to forecast specific snowstorms on specific dates," said Michael Halpert, deputy director of the Camp Springs, Md.-based Climate Prediction Center.
About a week into the future is the best that forecasters can do to peg down a specific storm, Halpert said.
The center's three-month outlook uses a three-class system, Halpert said.
Under this system, the forecast temperature and precipitation for a specific region within the country is designated as above normal, near normal or below normal.
The absence of an El Nino or La Nina right now makes it harder to generate an accurate seasonal outlook, Halpert said.
El Nino is a phenomenon of periodically warming Pacific Ocean waters that has a somewhat predictable global effect on weather conditions. La Nina is a periodic cooling of those same waters.
Another other major factor that goes into the generation of a season outlook is the examination of climate trends during the past 10 years, Halpert said.
With recent winters being warmer than normal, he said, there is an increased likelihood that this winter will also be mild.
The Climate Prediction Center will be updating the seasonal outlook Thursday.
The center will announce its official winter outlook Oct. 6 and release it the next day, timed to coincide with the winter fuel outlook media conference from the Energy Information Agency.
Whatever happens this winter with the weather, Halpert said, heating fuel prices will likely be higher than last year.
"Even if it's a milder winter, people will be paying more," he said.
A final winter outlook for 2008-09 will be released Nov. 20, according to NOAA spokeswoman Carmeyia Gillis.
Print this story
E-mail this story
