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October 30, 2012

Gibson-Schreibman race tightens

Siena poll has incumbent leading by five points

Joe Mahoney
The Daily Star

COOPERSTOWN — A new Siena College poll released this morning suggests the battle for New York's 19 Congressional District could be a squeaker, with freshman Rep. Chris Gibson, R-Kinderhook, now holding just a fiver-point lead over Democratic hopeful Julian Schreibman of Stone Ridge, Ulster County.

A month ago, Gibson, a decorated U.S. Army veteran, held a 16-point advantage over Schreibman, a former federal prosecutor and former chairman of the Ulster County Democratic Committee.

In the new survey of 649 likely voters, Siena said Gibson leads Schreibman, 48 percent to 43 percent.. WIth the margin of error of the poll put at 3.8 percent, the poll suggests Schreibman is now within striking distance of Gibson.

Schreibman's best showing was from his home turf. In Ulster and Dutchess counties, the poll said, Schreibman was ahead of Gibson 49 percent to 42 percent..

In a region defined by Siena as Otsego, Delaware
, Sullivan and Broome counties, Schreibman topped Gibson 45 percent to 43 percent.

Gibson is running best in the northern part of the district - New York's Capital Region - where the poll said he is ahead of Gibson 59 percenet to 34 percent.

The Siena poll found Schreibman gained ground at the same time that President Barack Obama, a Democrat, doubled his lead over Mitt Romney in the same region to eight points.

The crosstabs for the poll are at this Siena link: